4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 14

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

What Actually Happened

(6:31) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.18 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.20 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP