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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 27

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.86 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 37, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model