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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 26

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:51) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +3.71 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model