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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 38

Cincinnati Bengals 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:06) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 33 yards to PIT 5, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-21-D.Dennard.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.85 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.24 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP