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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 20 at the 35

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

What Actually Happened

(13:42) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 18 yards to CIN 17, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 19-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.00 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EP