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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Gus Bradley
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
Sunday 2015-10-04 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

JAX
41.4%
IND
58.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • IND offense: -0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • JAX defense: +0.124 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • IND defense: +0.025 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • QB edge to IND: Matt Hasselbeck (IND) -0.000 vs Blake Bortles (JAX) -0.005 EPA/dropback (IND starting Matt Hasselbeck in place of Andrew Luck)

Predicted Final Score

JAX 20
–
IND 23
Projected margin: IND by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

JAX

Marqise Lee WR Out Hamstring
Brandon Linder G Out Shoulder
Denard Robinson RB Out Knee
Sen'Derrick Marks DT Out Knee
Julius Thomas TE Out Hand
Sergio Brown S Doubtful Calf
Chris Clemons DE Probable Not Injury Related
Zane Beadles G Probable Finger
Allen Hurns WR Probable Thigh
Roy Miller DT Probable Knee
Tyler Shatley G Probable Thumb
Josh Evans S Probable Knee
Davon House CB Probable Lower Leg

IND

Tyler Varga RB Out Concussion
Gregory Toler CB Out Neck
Dwayne Allen TE Questionable Ankle
Andrew Luck QB Questionable right Shoulder
Darius Butler CB Probable Hip
Trent Cole LB Probable Knee
Vontae Davis CB Probable Not Injury Related
D'Qwell Jackson LB Probable Not Injury Related
Andre Johnson WR Probable Not Injury Related
Robert Mathis LB Probable Not Injury Related
Josh Robinson RB Probable Back
Bjoern Werner LB Probable Not Injury Related
T.Y. Hilton WR Probable Knee
Hugh Thornton G Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 13
–
IND 16

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:04 FG IND (5:04) 4-A.Vinatieri 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. JAX 0 – IND 3
  • Q1 02:54 FG JAX (2:54) 2-J.Myers 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger. JAX 3 – IND 3
  • Q2 11:46 TD JAX (11:46) (Run formation) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 88-A.Hurns for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 9 – IND 3
  • Q2 06:10 TD IND (6:10) (Run formation) 72-J.Harrison reported in as eligible. 8-M.Hasselbeck pass short middle to 80-C.Fleener for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [51-P.Posluszny]. JAX 10 – IND 9
  • Q2 00:09 FG JAX (:09) 2-J.Myers 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger. JAX 13 – IND 10
  • Q4 12:32 FG IND (12:32) 4-A.Vinatieri 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. JAX 13 – IND 13
  • Q5 04:41 FG IND (4:41) 4-A.Vinatieri 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. JAX 13 – IND 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 5 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (14:23) 1-P.McAfee punts 40 yards to JAX 31, Center-45-M.Overton. 41-N.Marshall MUFFS catch, recovered by JAX-35-D.McCray at JAX 30. 35-D.McCray to JAX 30 for no gain (57-J.McNary; 92-B.Werner).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 4 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 25%

    (10:34) 19-B.Anger punts 39 yards to IND 9, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 6 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 56%

    (5:04) 4-A.Vinatieri 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (2:54) 2-J.Myers 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 4 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (:23) 1-P.McAfee punts 45 yards to JAX 16, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 41-N.Marshall.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 14 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:55) 19-B.Anger punts 40 yards to IND 48, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 9 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 93%

    (:09) 2-J.Myers 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 9 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 30%

    (9:30) 19-B.Anger punts 38 yards to IND 8, Center-46-C.Tinker. 17-G.Whalen to IND 14 for 6 yards (46-C.Tinker).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 16 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 45%

    (4:09) 1-P.McAfee punts 39 yards to JAX 1, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND-27-W.Guy.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 11 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:45) 19-B.Anger punts 47 yards to IND 41, Center-46-C.Tinker. 17-G.Whalen to JAX 49 for 10 yards (41-N.Marshall).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 6 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 94%

    (12:32) 4-A.Vinatieri 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (11:16) 19-B.Anger punts 44 yards to IND 33, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 8 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 25%

    (5:24) 19-B.Anger punts 38 yards to IND 10, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 81 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (4:06) 1-P.McAfee punts 53 yards to JAX 28, Center-45-M.Overton. 81-B.Walters to JAX 31 for 3 yards (32-C.Anderson).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 16 at the 46 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 30%

    (1:56) 19-B.Anger punts 31 yards to IND 15, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 9 at the 84 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (:56) 1-P.McAfee punts 57 yards to JAX 27, Center-45-M.Overton. 81-B.Walters to JAX 27 for no gain (27-W.Guy).