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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 81

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(4:06) 1-P.McAfee punts 53 yards to JAX 28, Center-45-M.Overton. 81-B.Walters to JAX 31 for 3 yards (32-C.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.48 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 81, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.53 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 38, worth -1.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP