Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 61

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

(:23) 1-P.McAfee punts 45 yards to JAX 16, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 41-N.Marshall.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.45 EP
52% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 61, worth -3.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model