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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 14 at the 88

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(13:55) 19-B.Anger punts 40 yards to IND 48, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.

The Three Options

GO -3.39 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.72 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 88, worth -5.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 46, worth -2.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model