4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 48

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(10:34) 19-B.Anger punts 39 yards to IND 9, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.79 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 48, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -1.83 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model