Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 77

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – Indianapolis Colts 13

(11:16) 19-B.Anger punts 44 yards to IND 33, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.47 EP
61% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 77, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model