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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 16 at the 46

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 19-B.Anger punts 31 yards to IND 15, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.91 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 46, worth -1.78 EP
KICK -0.66 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 13, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model