Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 84

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

(:56) 1-P.McAfee punts 57 yards to JAX 27, Center-45-M.Overton. 81-B.Walters to JAX 27 for no gain (27-W.Guy).

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.57 EP
62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 84, worth -3.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model