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San Diego Chargers

HC Mike McCoy
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CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
Sunday 2015-09-20 · 13:00 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

SD
29.0%
CIN
71.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: +0.237 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • LAC offense: +0.107 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • CIN defense: -0.182 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: Andy Dalton (CIN) +0.409 vs Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.289 EPA/dropback
  • Andy Dalton (CIN) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

SD 21
–
CIN 30
Projected margin: CIN by 9 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

SD

Johnnie Troutman G Out Forearm
Tourek Williams LB Out Foot
Jahleel Addae S Doubtful Ankle
D.J. Fluker T Doubtful Ankle
Jacoby Jones WR Doubtful Ankle
Kyle Emanuel LB Questionable Shoulder
Jeremiah Attaochu LB Probable Hamstring
Brandon Flowers CB Probable Knee
Craig Mager CB Probable Hamstring

CIN

Marcus Hardison DT Out Knee
George Iloka S Questionable Ankle
Josh Shaw CB Questionable Groin
Dre Kirkpatrick CB Probable Calf
Reggie Nelson S Probable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SD 19
–
CIN 24

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:58 TD CIN (12:58) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 18-A.Green for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 0 – CIN 6
  • Q1 08:41 FG LAC (8:41) 2-J.Lambo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres. SD 3 – CIN 7
  • Q2 09:28 FG LAC (9:28) 2-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres. SD 6 – CIN 7
  • Q2 06:08 TD CIN (6:08) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 82-M.Jones for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 6 – CIN 13
  • Q3 10:40 TD LAC (10:40) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 11-S.Johnson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 12 – CIN 14
  • Q3 02:48 FG CIN (2:48) 2-M.Nugent 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. SD 13 – CIN 17
  • Q4 08:54 TD CIN (8:54) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 85-T.Eifert for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 13 – CIN 23
  • Q4 04:27 TD LAC (4:27) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 80-M.Floyd for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 19 – CIN 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 2 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (13:45) 10-K.Huber punts 44 yards to LAC 24, Center-46-C.Harris. 13-K.Allen MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CIN-59-E.Lamur at LAC 19.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 5 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 87%

    (8:41) 2-J.Lambo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 8 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 91%

    (14:47) 2-M.Nugent 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 94%

    (9:28) 2-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 6 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 27%

    (1:58) 5-M.Scifres punts 38 yards to CIN 11, Center-47-M.Windt. 19-B.Tate ran ob at CIN 23 for 12 yards (52-D.Perryman).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 76%

    (6:03) 2-J.Lambo 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

    (2:48) 2-M.Nugent 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 3 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (:41) 5-M.Scifres punts 53 yards to CIN 30, Center-47-M.Windt. 24-A.Jones to LAC 47 for 23 yards (83-J.Phillips; 56-D.Butler). PENALTY on CIN-26-J.Shaw, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 30. Punt return for Zero yards due to Penalty.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (12:47) 10-K.Huber punts 54 yards to LAC 5, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-36-S.Williams.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 13 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:07) 5-M.Scifres punts 53 yards to CIN 45, Center-47-M.Windt. 19-B.Tate to LAC 38 for 17 yards (52-D.Perryman).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 12 at the 58 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:19) 10-K.Huber punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.