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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 68

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 10-K.Huber punts 44 yards to LAC 24, Center-46-C.Harris. 13-K.Allen MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CIN-59-E.Lamur at LAC 19.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +2.27 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 26, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP