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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 83

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(:41) 5-M.Scifres punts 53 yards to CIN 30, Center-47-M.Windt. 24-A.Jones to LAC 47 for 23 yards (83-J.Phillips; 56-D.Butler). PENALTY on CIN-26-J.Shaw, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 30. Punt return for Zero yards due to Penalty.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.57 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 83, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.10 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 41, worth -2.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model