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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 13 at the 98

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(11:07) 5-M.Scifres punts 53 yards to CIN 45, Center-47-M.Windt. 19-B.Tate to LAC 38 for 17 yards (52-D.Perryman).

The Three Options

GO -4.01 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.31 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 98, worth -6.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

PUNT -2.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 53, worth -2.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model