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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 59

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 10-K.Huber punts 54 yards to LAC 5, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-36-S.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.56 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model