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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 58

Cincinnati Bengals 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 19

What Actually Happened

(1:19) 10-K.Huber punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +0.69 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model