4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 49

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(1:58) 5-M.Scifres punts 38 yards to CIN 11, Center-47-M.Windt. 19-B.Tate ran ob at CIN 23 for 12 yards (52-D.Perryman).

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.88 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -1.30 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model