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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 18

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(14:47) 2-M.Nugent 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.41 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model