DAL @ PHI — 4th & Data

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Philadelphia Eagles

0-2 HC Chip Kelly

Sunday 2015-09-20 · 16:25 ET Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 💨 Windy Spread 7.0 O/U 53.0

Win Probability

DAL

47.8%

PHI

52.2%

💨 Windy

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

Tony Romo (DAL): +0.204 EPA/dropback in prior starts
Wind 15 mph
PHI defense: -0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

DAL 21 14–28

–

PHI 24 17–31

Projected margin: PHI by 3 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 2

DAL

Dez Bryant WR Out Foot

Randy Gregory DE Out Ankle

Ronald Leary G Doubtful Groin

James Hanna TE Questionable Knee

Lucky Whitehead WR Probable Not Injury Related

Tony Romo QB Probable Back

PHI

Seyi Ajirotutu WR Out Concussion

Marcus Smith LB Probable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 20

–

PHI 10

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 01:42 FG DAL (1:42) 5-D.Bailey 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 3 – PHI 0
Q2 00:02 FG DAL (:02) 5-D.Bailey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 6 – PHI 0
Q3 12:44 TD DAL (12:44) 8-D.Jones punt is BLOCKED by 40-D.McCray, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, RECOVERED by DAL-51-K.Wilber at PHI 26. 51-K.Wilber for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 12 – PHI 0
Q4 14:21 FG PHI (14:21) 1-C.Parkey 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. DAL 13 – PHI 3
Q4 04:20 TD DAL (4:20) (Shotgun) 3-B.Weeden pass short right to 83-T.Williams for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-B.Graham]. DAL 19 – PHI 3
Q4 01:26 TD PHI (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass short right to 81-J.Matthews for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 20 – PHI 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 DAL 4th & 14 at the 84

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(12:41) 6-C.Jones punts 59 yards to PHI 25, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 40 for 15 yards (57-D.Wilson).
See the full breakdown →
Q1 PHI 4th & 1 at the 51

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.54 EP

p(convert) 70% p(FG) 17%

(11:47) 8-D.Jones punts 38 yards to DAL 13, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 78

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP

p(convert) 72%

(9:38) 6-C.Jones punts 60 yards to PHI 18, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 PHI 4th & 7 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(7:51) 8-D.Jones punts 45 yards to DAL 20, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 1

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.83 EP

p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

(1:42) 5-D.Bailey 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 PHI 4th & 10 at the 80

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(:31) 8-D.Jones punts 57 yards to DAL 23, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 24 for 1 yard (47-T.Burton). PHI-47-T.Burton was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PENALTY on DAL-39-B.Carr, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 24.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 DAL 4th & 14 at the 59

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(10:30) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to PHI 15, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 PHI 4th & 8 at the 83

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(9:22) 8-D.Jones punts 55 yards to DAL 28, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-58-J.Hicks.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 DAL 4th & 7 at the 69

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(7:14) 6-C.Jones punts 43 yards to PHI 26, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 PHI 4th & 16 at the 80

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(5:38) 8-D.Jones punts 59 yards to DAL 21, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 28 for 7 yards (14-R.Cooper). Penalty on DAL-57-D.Wilson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on DAL-27-J.Wilcox, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 21.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 PHI 4th & 10 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(12:44) 8-D.Jones punt is BLOCKED by 40-D.McCray, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, RECOVERED by DAL-51-K.Wilber at PHI 26. 51-K.Wilber for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 PHI 4th & 10 at the 80

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(12:21) 8-D.Jones punts 48 yards to DAL 32, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 DAL 4th & 1 at the 61

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP

p(convert) 70%

(1:46) 6-C.Jones punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Touchback.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 PHI 4th & 7 at the 28

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 74%

(14:21) 1-C.Parkey 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 DAL 4th & 8 at the 66

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(5:05) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to PHI 18, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 23 for 5 yards (31-B.Jones; 51-K.Wilber).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 PHI 4th & 6 at the 6 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

(1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass short right to 81-J.Matthews for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
See the full breakdown →

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