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Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Chip Kelly
Sunday 2015-09-20 · 16:25 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 💨 Windy Spread 7.0 O/U 53.0

Win Probability

DAL
44.7%
PHI
55.3%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Tony Romo (DAL): +0.204 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PHI defense: -0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.022 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • Sam Bradford (PHI) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

DAL 21
–
PHI 24
Projected margin: PHI by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

DAL

Dez Bryant WR Out Foot
Randy Gregory DE Out Ankle
Ronald Leary G Doubtful Groin
James Hanna TE Questionable Knee
Lucky Whitehead WR Probable Not Injury Related
Tony Romo QB Probable Back

PHI

Seyi Ajirotutu WR Out Concussion
Marcus Smith LB Probable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 20
–
PHI 10

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:42 FG DAL (1:42) 5-D.Bailey 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 3 – PHI 0
  • Q2 00:02 FG DAL (:02) 5-D.Bailey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 6 – PHI 0
  • Q3 12:44 TD DAL (12:44) 8-D.Jones punt is BLOCKED by 40-D.McCray, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, RECOVERED by DAL-51-K.Wilber at PHI 26. 51-K.Wilber for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 12 – PHI 0
  • Q4 14:21 FG PHI (14:21) 1-C.Parkey 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. DAL 13 – PHI 3
  • Q4 04:20 TD DAL (4:20) (Shotgun) 3-B.Weeden pass short right to 83-T.Williams for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-B.Graham]. DAL 19 – PHI 3
  • Q4 01:26 TD PHI (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass short right to 81-J.Matthews for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 20 – PHI 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 14 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:41) 6-C.Jones punts 59 yards to PHI 25, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 40 for 15 yards (57-D.Wilson).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.54 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 17%

    (11:47) 8-D.Jones punts 38 yards to DAL 13, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (9:38) 6-C.Jones punts 60 yards to PHI 18, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 7 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:51) 8-D.Jones punts 45 yards to DAL 20, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.83 EP
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (1:42) 5-D.Bailey 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:31) 8-D.Jones punts 57 yards to DAL 23, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 24 for 1 yard (47-T.Burton). PHI-47-T.Burton was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PENALTY on DAL-39-B.Carr, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 24.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 14 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (10:30) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to PHI 15, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 8 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:22) 8-D.Jones punts 55 yards to DAL 28, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-58-J.Hicks.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 7 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (7:14) 6-C.Jones punts 43 yards to PHI 26, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 16 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (5:38) 8-D.Jones punts 59 yards to DAL 21, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 28 for 7 yards (14-R.Cooper). Penalty on DAL-57-D.Wilson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on DAL-27-J.Wilcox, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 21.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 10 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:44) 8-D.Jones punt is BLOCKED by 40-D.McCray, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, RECOVERED by DAL-51-K.Wilber at PHI 26. 51-K.Wilber for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:21) 8-D.Jones punts 48 yards to DAL 32, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (1:46) 6-C.Jones punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Touchback.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 7 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 74%

    (14:21) 1-C.Parkey 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 8 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (5:05) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to PHI 18, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 23 for 5 yards (31-B.Jones; 51-K.Wilber).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 6 at the 6 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

    (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass short right to 81-J.Matthews for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.