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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 1

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 5-D.Bailey 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +3.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.92 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 1, worth +0.16 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.83 EP