Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 14 at the 84

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(12:41) 6-C.Jones punts 59 yards to PHI 25, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 40 for 15 yards (57-D.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -3.28 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.00 EP
70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 84, worth -5.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model