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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 51

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(11:47) 8-D.Jones punts 38 yards to DAL 13, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.98 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 51, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -1.70 EP
  • 17% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 83% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.54 EP