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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 28

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(14:21) 1-C.Parkey 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.50 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 28, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 38, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model