Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 68

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 6

(12:44) 8-D.Jones punt is BLOCKED by 40-D.McCray, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, RECOVERED by DAL-51-K.Wilber at PHI 26. 51-K.Wilber for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.44 EP
65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 68, worth -3.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model