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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 66

Dallas Cowboys 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to PHI 18, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 23 for 5 yards (31-B.Jones; 51-K.Wilber).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.92 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 66, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 24, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model