ARI @ CHI — 4th & Data

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HC Bruce Arians

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HC John Fox

Sunday 2015-09-20 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

ARI

78.8%

CHI

21.2%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

CHI defense: +0.415 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
ARI offense: +0.228 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
QB edge to ARI: Jay Cutler (CHI) -0.077 vs Carson Palmer (ARI) +0.508 EPA/dropback
CHI offense: +0.126 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 30

–

CHI 21

Projected margin: ARI by 9 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

ARI

Andre Ellington RB Out Knee

Mike Iupati G Out Knee

Deone Bucannon S Questionable Groin

Tony Jefferson S Questionable Hamstring

Michael Floyd WR Probable Hand

Jermaine Gresham TE Probable Hamstring

Troy Niklas TE Probable Hamstring

CHI

Jon Bostic LB Out Ankle

Tracy Porter CB Out Hamstring

Ego Ferguson DT Questionable Knee

Alshon Jeffery WR Questionable Hamstring

Pernell McPhee LB Questionable Wrist

Jermon Bushrod T Probable Back

Sam Acho LB Probable Illness

Sherrick McManis CB Probable Thigh

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 48

–

CHI 23

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 15:00 TD ARI 9-R.Gould kicks 73 yards from CHI 35 to ARI -8. 31-D.Johnson for 108 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – CHI 0
Q1 03:29 TD CHI (3:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep left to 11-J.Bellamy for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 7 – CHI 6
Q1 01:19 TD ARI (1:19) 3-C.Palmer pass short left to 13-JA.Brown for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 13 – CHI 7
Q2 10:06 TD CHI (10:06) 72-C.Leno Jr. reported in as eligible. 33-J.Langford left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 14 – CHI 13
Q2 03:56 TD ARI (3:56) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 20 – CHI 14
Q2 03:08 TD ARI (3:08) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short middle intended for 83-M.Bennett INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Jefferson at CHI 26. 22-T.Jefferson for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI-6-J.Cutler was injured during the play. He is Out. ARI 27 – CHI 14
Q2 01:04 FG CHI (1:04) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. Penalty on ARI-26-R.Johnson, Defensive Offside, declined. ARI 28 – CHI 17
Q2 00:02 FG CHI (:02) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. ARI 28 – CHI 20
Q3 12:49 TD ARI (12:49) 3-C.Palmer pass deep right to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-P.McPhee]. PENALTY on CHI-92-P.McPhee, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs. ARI 34 – CHI 20
Q3 06:13 TD ARI (6:13) 31-D.Johnson left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 41 – CHI 20
Q3 02:31 FG CHI (2:31) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. ARI 42 – CHI 23
Q4 02:49 TD ARI (2:49) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 48 – CHI 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 CHI 4th & 10 at the 46

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 34%

(10:29) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-43-T.Gafford, Touchback.
Q1 ARI 4th & 2 at the 47

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP

p(convert) 66% p(FG) 32%

(6:30) (Punt formation) 2-D.Butler punts 36 yards to CHI 11, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.
Q2 CHI 4th & 13 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(1:25) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to ARI 20, Center-43-T.Gafford. 14-J.Nelson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CHI-35-J.Rodgers at ARI 22. 35-J.Rodgers to ARI 22 for no gain (14-J.Nelson).
Q2 CHI 4th & 10 at the 22

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 87%

(1:04) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. Penalty on ARI-26-R.Johnson, Defensive Offside, declined.
Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 5

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

(:02) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Q3 CHI 4th & 4 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 52%

(10:42) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 55 yards to ARI 19, Center-43-T.Gafford. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 25 for 6 yards (49-S.Acho).
Q3 CHI 4th & 5 at the 33

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43% p(FG) 67%

(2:31) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Q3 ARI 4th & 8 at the 78

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48%

(:53) (Punt formation) 2-D.Butler punts 42 yards to CHI 36, Center-82-M.Leach. 80-M.Mariani to ARI 44 for 20 yards (28-J.Bethel).
Q4 ARI 4th & 10 at the 47

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 32%

(10:12) (Punt formation) 2-D.Butler punts 43 yards to CHI 4, Center-82-M.Leach, downed by ARI-28-J.Bethel.
Q4 CHI 4th & 7 at the 93

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(7:58) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to CHI 46, Center-43-T.Gafford, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.
Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 23

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 74% p(FG) 86%

(5:46) (Pass formation) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 11-L.Fitzgerald to CHI 21 for 2 yards (20-T.Mitchell).
Q4 CHI 4th & 7 at the 24 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.16 EP

p(convert) 37% p(FG) 84%

(1:16) (Shotgun) 8-J.Clausen pass incomplete deep left to 19-E.Royal.