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ARI Away

Arizona Cardinals

2-0 HC Bruce Arians
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CHI Home

Chicago Bears

0-2 HC John Fox
Sunday 2015-09-20 · 13:00 ET Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

ARI
75.4%
CHI
24.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to ARI: Jay Cutler (CHI) -0.077 vs Carson Palmer (ARI) +0.508 EPA/dropback
  • ARI offense: +0.228 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • CHI defense: +0.415 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • CHI offense: +0.126 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

ARI 30 23–37
–
CHI 21 14–28
Projected margin: ARI by 9 Projected total: 51

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 2

ARI

Andre Ellington RB Out Knee
Mike Iupati G Out Knee
Deone Bucannon S Questionable Groin
Tony Jefferson S Questionable Hamstring
Michael Floyd WR Probable Hand
Jermaine Gresham TE Probable Hamstring
Troy Niklas TE Probable Hamstring

CHI

Jon Bostic LB Out Ankle
Tracy Porter CB Out Hamstring
Ego Ferguson DT Questionable Knee
Alshon Jeffery WR Questionable Hamstring
Pernell McPhee LB Questionable Wrist
Jermon Bushrod T Probable Back
Sam Acho LB Probable Illness
Sherrick McManis CB Probable Thigh

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 48
–
CHI 23

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 15:00 TD ARI 9-R.Gould kicks 73 yards from CHI 35 to ARI -8. 31-D.Johnson for 108 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – CHI 0
  • Q1 03:29 TD CHI (3:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep left to 11-J.Bellamy for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 7 – CHI 6
  • Q1 01:19 TD ARI (1:19) 3-C.Palmer pass short left to 13-JA.Brown for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 13 – CHI 7
  • Q2 10:06 TD CHI (10:06) 72-C.Leno Jr. reported in as eligible. 33-J.Langford left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 14 – CHI 13
  • Q2 03:56 TD ARI (3:56) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 20 – CHI 14
  • Q2 03:08 TD ARI (3:08) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short middle intended for 83-M.Bennett INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Jefferson at CHI 26. 22-T.Jefferson for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI-6-J.Cutler was injured during the play. He is Out. ARI 27 – CHI 14
  • Q2 01:04 FG CHI (1:04) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. Penalty on ARI-26-R.Johnson, Defensive Offside, declined. ARI 28 – CHI 17
  • Q2 00:02 FG CHI (:02) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. ARI 28 – CHI 20
  • Q3 12:49 TD ARI (12:49) 3-C.Palmer pass deep right to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-P.McPhee]. PENALTY on CHI-92-P.McPhee, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs. ARI 34 – CHI 20
  • Q3 06:13 TD ARI (6:13) 31-D.Johnson left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 41 – CHI 20
  • Q3 02:31 FG CHI (2:31) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. ARI 42 – CHI 23
  • Q4 02:49 TD ARI (2:49) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 48 – CHI 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 10 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 34%

    (10:29) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-43-T.Gafford, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ARI 4th & 2 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 32%

    (6:30) (Punt formation) 2-D.Butler punts 36 yards to CHI 11, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 13 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:25) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to ARI 20, Center-43-T.Gafford. 14-J.Nelson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CHI-35-J.Rodgers at ARI 22. 35-J.Rodgers to ARI 22 for no gain (14-J.Nelson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 10 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 87%

    (1:04) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. Penalty on ARI-26-R.Johnson, Defensive Offside, declined.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (:02) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CHI 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (10:42) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 55 yards to ARI 19, Center-43-T.Gafford. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 25 for 6 yards (49-S.Acho).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CHI 4th & 5 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 67%

    (2:31) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ARI 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (:53) (Punt formation) 2-D.Butler punts 42 yards to CHI 36, Center-82-M.Leach. 80-M.Mariani to ARI 44 for 20 yards (28-J.Bethel).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ARI 4th & 10 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 32%

    (10:12) (Punt formation) 2-D.Butler punts 43 yards to CHI 4, Center-82-M.Leach, downed by ARI-28-J.Bethel.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 7 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (7:58) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to CHI 46, Center-43-T.Gafford, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74% p(FG) 86%

    (5:46) (Pass formation) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 11-L.Fitzgerald to CHI 21 for 2 yards (20-T.Mitchell).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 7 at the 24 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 84%

    (1:16) (Shotgun) 8-J.Clausen pass incomplete deep left to 19-E.Royal.

    See the full breakdown →