Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 93

Chicago Bears 23 – Arizona Cardinals 42

(7:58) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to CHI 46, Center-43-T.Gafford, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.

The Three Options

GO -2.84 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.25 EP
55% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 93, worth -5.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model