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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 5

Chicago Bears 17 – Arizona Cardinals 28

What Actually Happened

(:02) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +3.55 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 5, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +2.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model