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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 23

Arizona Cardinals 42 – Chicago Bears 23

What Actually Happened

(5:46) (Pass formation) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 11-L.Fitzgerald to CHI 21 for 2 yards (20-T.Mitchell).

The Three Options

GO +2.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.11 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 23, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 33, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model