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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 47

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(6:30) (Punt formation) 2-D.Butler punts 36 yards to CHI 11, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.66 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 47, worth -2.88 EP
KICK -1.46 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 13, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP