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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 22

Chicago Bears 14 – Arizona Cardinals 28

What Actually Happened

(1:04) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. Penalty on ARI-26-R.Johnson, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.01 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.61 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 32, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT +0.22 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model