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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 74

Chicago Bears 20 – Arizona Cardinals 35

What Actually Happened

(10:42) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 55 yards to ARI 19, Center-43-T.Gafford. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 25 for 6 yards (49-S.Acho).

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model