4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 24

Chicago Bears 23 – Arizona Cardinals 48

What Actually Happened

(1:16) (Shotgun) 8-J.Clausen pass incomplete deep left to 19-E.Royal.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +3.22 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 34, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.16 EP