Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- Jameis Winston (TB): -0.037 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- Marcus Mariota (TEN): +0.071 EPA/dropback in prior starts
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 1
TEN
TB
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 29 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 13:22 TD TEN (13:22) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 13-K.Wright for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – TB 0
- Q1 11:58 TD TEN (11:58) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left intended for 11-A.Humphries INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Sensabaugh at TB 26. 24-C.Sensabaugh for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – TB 0
- Q1 06:56 TD TEN (6:56) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 20-B.Sankey for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 20 – TB 0
- Q2 15:00 TD TB (15:00) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 87-A.Seferian-Jenkins for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 21 – TB 6
- Q2 03:53 TD TEN (3:53) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 83-H.Douglas for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 27 – TB 7
- Q2 00:52 TD TEN (:52) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 82-D.Walker for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 34 – TB 7
- Q3 08:06 TD TEN (8:06) 20-B.Sankey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 41 – TB 7
- Q4 09:30 TD TB (9:30) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 87-A.Seferian-Jenkins for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 42 – TB 13
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 TB 4th & 9 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(10:23) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 42 yards to TEN 37, Center-48-A.DePaola, out of bounds.
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Q1 TB 4th & 1 at the 26Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 81%
(3:17) 3-J.Winston scrambles right end to TEN 21 for 5 yards (55-Z.Brown).
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Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 44Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 37%
(10:05) 22-D.Martin left tackle to TEN 43 for 1 yard (55-Z.Brown, 21-D.Searcy). Tennessee challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 22-D.Martin left tackle to TEN 44 for no gain (55-Z.Brown, 21-D.Searcy).
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Q3 TB 4th & 16 at the 86Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(5:43) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 56 yards to TEN 30, Center-48-A.DePaola, downed by TB-50-B.Carter.
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Q3 TEN 4th & 17 at the 40Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 48%
(1:02) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 38 yards to TB 2, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-54-A.Williamson.
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Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 98Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(15:00) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 46 yards to TB 48, Center-48-A.DePaola. 22-D.McCluster pushed ob at TB 35 for 13 yards (48-A.DePaola).
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Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 41Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 45%
(9:30) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 87-A.Seferian-Jenkins for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 14 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(7:14) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to TB 39, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 43-B.Rainey to TB 37 for -2 yards (28-M.Huff).
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Q4 TB 4th & 16 at the 16 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.05 EPp(convert) 22% p(FG) 92%
(2:18) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete deep middle to 83-V.Jackson (39-D.Stafford).
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Q4 TEN 4th & 15 at the 89 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(:37) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to TB 40, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.