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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 16 at the 16

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Tennessee Titans 42

What Actually Happened

(2:18) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete deep middle to 83-V.Jackson (39-D.Stafford).

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
What Happened
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.19 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 16, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.05 EP