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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 41

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Tennessee Titans 42

What Actually Happened

(9:30) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 87-A.Seferian-Jenkins for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.13 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -1.69 EP
KICK -0.32 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model