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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 44

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Tennessee Titans 21

What Actually Happened

(10:05) 22-D.Martin left tackle to TEN 43 for 1 yard (55-Z.Brown, 21-D.Searcy). Tennessee challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 22-D.Martin left tackle to TEN 44 for no gain (55-Z.Brown, 21-D.Searcy).

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.09 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.30 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.07 EP
PUNT -0.84 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model