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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 14 at the 84

Tennessee Titans 42 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(7:14) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to TB 39, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 43-B.Rainey to TB 37 for -2 yards (28-M.Huff).

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.41 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 42, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model