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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 98

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Tennessee Titans 42

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 46 yards to TB 48, Center-48-A.DePaola. 22-D.McCluster pushed ob at TB 35 for 13 yards (48-A.DePaola).

The Three Options

GO -3.66 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.51 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 98, worth -6.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

PUNT -2.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 53, worth -2.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model