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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 16 at the 86

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Tennessee Titans 42

What Actually Happened

(5:43) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 56 yards to TEN 30, Center-48-A.DePaola, downed by TB-50-B.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -3.07 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.57 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 86, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 44, worth -1.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model