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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 79

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(10:23) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 42 yards to TEN 37, Center-48-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.72 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 79, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 36, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model