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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Chip Kelly
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ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
Monday 2015-09-14 · 19:10 Georgia Dome, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.5 O/U 55.0

Win Probability

PHI
42.8%
ATL
57.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to PHI: Matt Ryan (ATL) -0.056 vs Sam Bradford (PHI) -0.012 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

PHI 21
–
ATL 24
Projected margin: ATL by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

PHI

Zach Ertz TE Questionable Groin
Marcus Smith LB Questionable Hamstring

ATL

Devin Hester WR Out Toe
Brooks Reed LB Out Groin
Joplo Bartu LB Probable Quadricep
Devonta Freeman RB Probable Hamstring
Jake Matthews T Probable Back
Robenson Therezie S Probable Groin
Roddy White WR Probable Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 24
–
ATL 26

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:00 FG ATL (11:00) 3-M.Bryant 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. PHI 0 – ATL 3
  • Q2 10:50 TD ATL (10:50) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – ATL 9
  • Q2 07:23 FG PHI (7:23) 1-C.Parkey 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 3 – ATL 10
  • Q2 01:09 FG ATL (1:09) 3-M.Bryant 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. PHI 3 – ATL 13
  • Q2 00:51 TD ATL (:51) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 11-J.Jones for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 3 – ATL 19
  • Q3 13:20 TD PHI (13:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 29-D.Murray right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 9 – ATL 20
  • Q3 03:46 TD PHI (3:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass short left to 29-D.Murray for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [77-R.Hageman]. PHI 16 – ATL 20
  • Q4 10:54 FG ATL (10:54) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. PHI 17 – ATL 23
  • Q4 08:42 TD PHI (8:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 24-R.Mathews right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 23 – ATL 23
  • Q4 06:33 FG ATL (6:33) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. PHI 24 – ATL 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (14:10) 8-D.Jones punts 60 yards to ATL 16, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 14-E.Weems to ATL 25 for 9 yards (16-S.Ajirotutu).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 3 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 87%

    (11:00) 3-M.Bryant 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:44) 8-D.Jones punts 45 yards to ATL 35, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 14-E.Weems to ATL 46 for 11 yards (47-T.Burton). PENALTY on ATL-30-C.Godfrey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 44.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 3 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (4:54) 8-D.Jones punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Touchback.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:58) 5-M.Bosher punts 53 yards to PHI 32, Center-47-J.Harris. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 47 for 15 yards (47-J.Harris).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 9 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 49%

    (1:31) 8-D.Jones punts 30 yards to ATL 12, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 68%

    (8:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz to ATL 16 for 18 yards (25-W.Moore).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 96%

    (7:23) 1-C.Parkey 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 3 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (6:31) 5-M.Bosher punts 59 yards to PHI 11, Center-47-J.Harris. 43-D.Sproles pushed ob at PHI 23 for 12 yards (36-K.Ishmael). PENALTY on PHI-31-B.Maxwell, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 11. Penalty on PHI-26-W.Thurmond, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 85
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (5:17) 8-D.Jones punts 31 yards to PHI 46, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-46-J.Dorenbos.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 89%

    (1:09) 3-M.Bryant 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 11 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:59) 5-M.Bosher punts 62 yards to PHI 5, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 6 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 83%

    (10:54) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 78%

    (6:33) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 26 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 83%

    (2:32) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 5 at the 61 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (2:00) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 57 yards to PHI 4, Center-47-J.Harris. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 14 for 10 yards (80-L.Toilolo).