4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 26

Atlanta Falcons 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(10:54) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.53 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 36, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model