Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 42

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

(1:31) 8-D.Jones punts 30 yards to ATL 12, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.57 EP
68% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 42, worth -2.48 EP

KICK -0.61 EP

49% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
51% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model