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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 76

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 8-D.Jones punts 60 yards to ATL 16, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 14-E.Weems to ATL 25 for 9 yards (16-S.Ajirotutu).

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.03 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 76, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 34, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model