Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 67

Atlanta Falcons 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

(9:59) 5-M.Bosher punts 62 yards to PHI 5, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.40 EP
68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 67, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model