4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 34

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(8:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz to ATL 16 for 18 yards (25-W.Moore).

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.78 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 34, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 44, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model